The 2020 Netease economists' annual meeting, jointly sponsored by China enterprise reform and Development Research Association, China industry and economic news agency and NetEase Finance and economics, was held in Beijing on December 22. The theme of this forum is "opening up new pattern, intelligent leading and new growth".
Zhu Guangyao, counsellor of the State Council and former Vice Minister of the Ministry of finance, said in his speech that influenced by the upgrading of the Sino US trade war in 2018-2019, the country structure of China's foreign trade will change in 2019, and ASEAN will replace the United States as China's second largest trade partner, and the trade relations between countries along the belt and road and China will develop rapidly.
Zhu Guangyao said that the essence of the Sino US trade war is the competition of the comprehensive national strength of the country. At present, China's per capita GDP still lags far behind that of advanced economies, less than one sixth of that of the United States.
The following is the actual record:
On the surface, the trade war between China and the United States is caused by the trade imbalance between China and the United States, but on the middle level, it is a dispute over structural issues, but the most fundamental problem lies in the competition for labor productivity and the comprehensive national strength of the country.
In terms of per capita GDP, in 2018, the United States exceeded US $60000, while China exceeded US $9800, or less than 1 / 6 of the United States. The gap is still very large. Although as the second largest economy in the world, China has maintained a growth rate of more than 6%, that is to say, the annual growth scale has exceeded US $900 billion, which is roughly the annual total economic volume of a medium-sized economy. By 2019, China has become the largest contributor to global economic growth for 14 consecutive years, and is confident to continue to be the largest contributor in 2020. However, the gap between per capita GDP and advanced economies must also be clearly seen. China's per capita GDP is less than 1 / 6 of that of the United States, 1 / 3 of that of South Korea, and lower than that of Russia. For this reason, we should continue to work hard to maintain a moderate economic growth rate and maintain medium and high-speed development on the basis of improving the quality and efficiency of growth.
In the field of foreign trade, in 2018, China's total foreign trade import and export reached US $4.62 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 12.6%, of which export reached US $2.48 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 9.9%, import reached US $2.14 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, and trade surplus reached US $340 billion. Structurally, the EU continues to be China's largest trading partner, with a total trade surplus of US $208bn between China and the 28 EU countries. The United States is China's second largest trading partner, with a trade surplus of US $323.3 billion. ASEAN is China's third largest trading partner, but in 2019 it will replace the United States as China's second largest trading partner. From the perspective of China's major deficit countries, the trade deficit with South Korea is 95.8 billion US dollars, mainly for the import of intermediate products; the trade deficit with Australia is 32.1 billion US dollars, the trade deficit with Brazil is 29.5 billion US dollars, and the trade deficit with Russia is 11.3 billion US dollars, mainly for commodities, energy, minerals and agricultural products. China's largest trade deficit economy is Taiwan Province of China, with major intermediate products and agricultural products. Trade makes the economy between the mainland and Taiwan Province closely linked. In 2018 and 2019, with the aggravation of trade disputes between China and the United States, China's trade relations show a trend of diversification, especially the trade relations between countries along the "belt and road" and China have developed very rapidly. By 2018, it has reached $1.3 trillion, an increase of 6.3%, including exports of $700 billion, an increase of 10.9%, imports of $560 billion, an increase of 23.9%, and trade surplus of $140 billion It is expected that there will be a significant increase in 2019.
International trade conforms to the trend of economic globalization, but some major industrialized countries, especially the United States, have suffered a very serious impact on the Sino-U.S. economic and trade relations because of the rapid rise of unilateralism and protectionism caused by populism at home. In the face of challenges, China can continue to promote trade diversification, further expand the scope of cooperation in the free trade area, speed up the negotiation process of relevant free trade areas, and expand mutually beneficial and win-win bilateral trade relations with major economies as much as possible.